"This is Not an Era of War" - Lessons from the Israel-Palestine Ceasefire Agreement

"This isn't an era of war"—a statement by the Prime Minister of the Republic of India given to the Russian President holds immense value in the current global context. Case in point: the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Palestine after a gruesome 15-month war, claiming close to fifty thousand 'reported' deaths, including thousands of innocent children, women, and men, mostly on the Palestinian side.

A ceasefire agreement is indeed a sigh of relief for both sides. However, from Israel's perspective at this very juncture, it doesn't seem like a real success. Netanyahu’s handling of the war has invited mixed reactions from across the world, and even from his own cabinet, with the negatives dominating the positives. Facing severe backlash both internally and externally for failing to safely secure the release of abducted hostages, and for creating horrific bloodshed in Palestine, Benjamin Netanyahu was in a 'doomed if he continues the war, doomed if he doesn't' situation for a long time.

Israel accepting the ceasefire agreement mediated and materialized by Qatar, Egypt, and the US is indeed a welcome move for the flourishing future of humanity (not to mention the defense industries indulged in war-profiteering, unwelcoming it as this brings their money-minting machines to a temporary halt). However, the above holds true only if the call to peace promises long-term gains for both countries. Considering Israel-Palestine’s complicated state of affairs and deep-rooted hostility towards each other, this actually seems like a not-so-feasible possibility. Despite the Jewish nation wiping out almost the entire top command of Hamas (a terrorist group as considered by Israel and various other countries, barring India), Hamas’ unacceptance and intolerance of Judaism still remain uncured. In fact, for Hamas’ extremists and fundamentalists, who have lost their entire families in the conflict, their anger against the Jewish state has only intensified, and their determination for vengeance further reinforced. Hence, even after signing the agreement, the much weaker (in comparison to Israel) Palestinian side is in no way kneeling or playing submissive before Israel. It remains committed to pouncing back as a wounded wolf, ready to inflict even nastier injuries on its biggest enemy.

AI-generated 

International affairs remain a fascinating field. Time and again, wars, global treaties, and regional groupings, along with their unexpected outcomes, have underscored this. Call it a boon or bane of the multipolar world, but no country today (regardless of whether it harbors terrorism or promotes anarchy) is left isolated by its global peers. There always remains direct or back-channel support for them from the world’s leading powers.

On a raw note, considering the present global equations, it could be loosely pointed out that the US and most European countries form one part of the global camp, while the other major powers—Russia and China—form another. These two camps come to the rescue of almost any country in the world, depending on their personal interests and long-standing relations. By providing unwavering support in the form of defense capabilities, economic aid, or sanctions against their opponents, they always lend a helping hand (often invisibly) in times of need. To roughly exemplify, the former bloc in the present scenario would more or less support countries like Israel and Ukraine, while the latter would support Palestine and Iran, to a certain extent.

With such all-weather camaraderie and the eventual stalemates in outcomes, it has become nearly impossible in present times for one country to completely take over another with military power, no matter how inferior the latter may seem. Besides Iran and Ukraine—both decently powerful nations that remain in the global limelight, the same applies even to distressed, economically torn, and sanctioned nations that usually stay out of the mainstream, like Venezuela.

{India, savoring and audaciously flaunting a rare sweet spot commanding respect and recognition from both camps, stands firm, fostering harmony even with both the opposing parties}.

Unless the top powers from both camps unite (that seems like a utopian dream), defense and foreign policy advisors of countries, especially those with a penchant for expansion and aggression, should always bear in mind that any offensive, no matter how meticulously planned, will ultimately reap net negative returns in the long run.

On February 24, 2022, and October 8, 2023, many believed that Russia and Israel respectively would easily overpower their opponents and emerge victorious. Yet, a year or two later, the world has witnessed a reality far away from those expectations. While the weaker nations in these cases have indeed suffered far greater losses in terms of lives, infrastructure, and livelihoods—setting them back by nearly a decade in development. Such destruction is not the quintessential goal for the more powerful country in any full-scale war. Their aims usually include expanding borders, annexing states, or eradicating specific groups—objectives in which both Russia and Israel have so far failed.

Perhaps wars of yesteryears, including the World Wars and the early Iraq and Afghan wars, may have defined an era of war. Today, however, as Narendra Modi aptly stated, it is not. While digital media sensationalizes even the smallest skirmishes for attention, one must keep in mind two things: first, that despite the UN (particularly the UNSC) facing criticism and calls for reform (even from permanent members like France and Russia), and Taiwan remaining a sensitive affair, there is still little possibility of a 'full-scale war' in the coming decades; and second, one really needs to avoid giving credence to sensationalized narratives on TV channels.